Monday, November 26, 2012

USAR C7NC Women's Pool predictions

Yes, this is a national competition, but it is occurring in the Lone Star State, so technically, that's college rugby in Texas.

In 2011, the women's pools at this event seemed rather, well, thrown together.  Not so this year. Much care has gone into ensuring equality amongst the pools.  I have listed my pool finish predictions below in 1-4 fashion.

POOL A
Norwich
Stanford
Ohio State
Sam Houston State

Princeton tackling Norwich.
Norwich is my favorite to win the trophy again. After a phenomenal XVs season in which they out-scored their 13 opponents by 1023-36 (I know that seems impossible. Go do the math for yourself here. I double-checked mine), they know how to obtain possession and find the in-goal. Additionally, Norwich scheduled their fall season with this date in mind, so they are also well-rested and 7s-ready going into Aggieland.

Nothing against The Cardinal (Stanford) with 4 D1 titles, 13 appearances in the D1 National Semi-Finals, and "Too many All-Americans to count", but they placed 3rd in the 7s qualifier held on their home field and haven't been playing a lot of rugby, yet. They'll play good rugby as they always do, but it won't be enough to topple the Cadets.

OSU beat Penn State to get to this competition, no mean feat. They will be a handful for Norwich and Stanford. However, they are in a similar position to many of the teams that made the trip last year, physically and logistically exhausted. They must raise their mental state to make the difference that they have the ability to make. This is my pick for Bowl finalists. Did I mention they beat Penn State?

Sam Houston will be making a short trip from Huntsville, TX to attend this tournament. This is a very new club with no experience in national tournaments. While I don't expect them to win Pool A, I do expect they will be some of the hardest hitting rugby players in this tournament. That is a Sam Houston Rugby tradition.

POOL B
Harvard-Radcliffe
Navy
Northern Iowa
Colorado

This is Rad Rugby's transitional year from club to varsity status. Yet, they've only lost to three schools (Princeton twice, Army, & Brown) this semester and won the Cianci 7s (collegiate qualifier held by Providence Rugby) to get here. This is a good team with solid coaching. I expect them to win their pool easily.

Navy Women's Rugby (NWR) may not be a heavy-hitter in college 7s, right now, but I suspect that will not last long. The Middies will come to Texas fast and fit. Being a military academy team, they will travel well-supported. Navy will be the fly in the ointment in this pool.

UNI submitted at-large bid to get an invite, but has already qualified for the XVs D1 playoffs. Their conference requires them to travel extensively, so making the 16 hour drive (yes, they are driving, not flying) is not out of the ordinary for them. Coach Steve Murra has players that may compete for spots at the OTC in Chula Vista and a player with experience playing 7s overseas (Phillipines & Sri Lanka). Navy may be the fly in the ointment, but UNI will be the burr under the saddle even though their 7s experience is faint.

Colorado plays in a tough division that also involves a LOT of travel. They're 3-4 in XVs for the Fall 2012 season and have very little 7s experience going into this weekend. They've got a lot of time as a team already this Fall, so they should prove tough.
Norwich making a line break on Princeton

POOL C
California
Texas
Boston College
Oklahoma

Pool C emerges as this year's "Pool of Death" with three veteran clubs (2011 Cup Finalists BC, 2011 Plate Champions California, and 2011 Bowl Champions Texas)  in this competition and the always tough Oklahoma Roses.

After losing a very close quarterfinal match to Boston College last year, California is NOT going to allow that to happen this year. Sure, they took home the Plate, but Cal had one of the top three teams going into last year's tournament. They should have been a semi-finalist and a finalist. But this year they've had a tough row to hoe in the Pacific Mountain Conference 7s with Oregon State beating them three times, twice in tournament finals. They'll win this pool, but go 2-1 to accomplish that feat.

Texas is primed. The Horns had a good 7s qualifier and will not be satisfied with hoisting a Bowl this year. Good coaching and a motivated team will get them the number 2 position in this pool. They looked very good last year, they will look better this year.

This year's BC is not last year's BC. They've had a rough 4-4 XVs season (URI & Norwich proving their nemeses) in which they peaked early. But they are upperclass heavy and that experience should prove to get them one strong win in this pool.

Oklahoma has had a strong XVs season this fall, beating Texas & Tulsa and placing 3rd at the Ozark Tourney. But this isn't XVs and come 8:40 on Friday morning, Texas will be wanting their bragging rights back. Oklahoma should pull off one surprise win against someone in this pool, but they are not a 7s team.

POOL D
Princeton
Oregon State
Texas Tech
James Madison

Princeton winning a scrum against Norwich.
Princeton was a very good team last year and gave Norwich some pause in the semi-finals. Princeton is better this year. The only teams that will give them trouble in this tournament are Cal & Norwich. Unfortunately, because of the pool selections, Princeton will likely meet Norwich in the Semis again this year. Princeton will have one problem going 3-0 in this pool, Oregon State.

Oregon State was not extremely strong last year. But, they've done something about that and have bested Stanford and California (thrice!) in 7s this Fall. They play Princeton in this pool's last game on Friday. Princeton should win it, but Oregon State will be tough to beat. Interestingly enough, IF Oregon State places 2nd in this pool, they'll likely play California in the QFs. That's good for Oregon State!

Texas Tech is new to 7s, but played well at the SWWC qualifier. They're a tough team that has a (relatively) short distance to travel. They've been traveling well this fall and playing a lot of rugby. They won't be ready to beat the likes of Princeton & Oregon State, but they'll be ready to give both teams fits!

James Madison of the Mason Dixon conference is not a name we are used to seeing at this level. This is a rough pool to play in for their level of experience. They'll be fighting with Tech over which team from this pool goes to Bowl or Shield play

Photos of the Norwich-Princeton semi-final match from the 2011 USAR C7NC courtesy of David M. Bernheim.