Allied Rugby Conference outlook

The race for Allied Rugby Conference Championship Tournament seeding is in full swing! With four games left over two weekends in this season, let's review the possible outcomes.

The ARC will likely end the season in this order: A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Tech, Sam Houston, and Baylor. However, A&M has the toughest schedule and Texas the easiest to end the season. The Aggies must get on the gas and stay on it to win out. Texas must NOT slump to stay in the fight for second. If it ends in this order, then Texas gets one more chance at Texas A&M in Dallas on April 6 at the ARC Championships.

I've played with the numbers and come up with the three most likely and enticing scenarios resulting for the March 23rd clashes of Texas at Sam Houston and Texas Tech at Texas A&M, and the March 30th battles of Texas A&M at Oklahoma and Baylor at Texas.

Scenario 1 seems the most likely possibility. Texas A&M is rolling right now and really just beginning to find the pace of their pattern of play. The 'Horns tested the Aggie defense at the end of the game with some fervor and found opportunities, but A&M proved stingy with what they allowed. A&M is going to pressure the flyhalf relentlessly and capitalize on his mistakes. Texas discovered that the hard way. The next two games for A&M will not be a cake walk, but they will likely win.

Unless Sam and Baylor return from spring break completely changed teams, I do not think they can break Texas. Especially after Texas loses tough to A&M and winning out means Texas gets a rematch against their rivals on April 6 in Dallas. In all scenarios, I think Texas wins both matches with bonus points for four tries.

Scenario 2 makes things interesting. A&M's toughest opponent will be on the road trip to Norman, OK. A&M at home against Tech will just be too much for the well-rested Red Raiders. If Oklahoma beats A&M with bonus points (and let's face it, OU must score 4+ tries to win that game) and A&M loses (with or without BP), then those two teams get a rematch the very next weekend in Dallas. Even if A&M does not earn bonus points, they would beat Texas for the 2nd seed by the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Scenario 3 will be the favorite of the Texas and Oklahoma fans. This path has the Sooners and Red Raiders victorious over the Aggies, thus facing the Longhorns for the ARC Championship trophy. In order for this to happen, OU and Tech will have to spin the ball wide as quick as possible and have al-Jiboori and Sule, respectively, fend off their opposite while turning the corner, then outpace him. They've proven they can do this already. They'll have to make it happen several times to beat the Aggies.

There is one far-fetched scenario that has Texas going to Dallas as the #1 seed. In that one, Texas HAS to win both matches with BP with A&M losing to Tech without earning BP as well as beat OU without BP. With Texas at 20 series points and A&M at 19, that's still a UT/A&M Final.

All scenarios have A&M, UT, OU & Tech in the top four positions of this conference.

In case you missed it here is a replay of the classic match between Texas and Texas A&M from Friday, February 8, 2013. While A&M really showed dominance early on, Texas dug deep and tried to make a game of it late. Most teams would have already thrown in the towel. Hats off to the 'Horns for the wonderful extra effort. Texas' #8, Danny Cotton, showed class and showmanship in the final 15 minutes. Great play by that young man.

Texas A&M played as a team, but I would point to young Matt Theodore as the stand-out for Texas A&M in that match. He played the field general directing the forwards well, taking opportunities when Texas neglected to close a seam (once for a try), and, for the most part, getting clean ball to the Aggie backline when they needed it.